Crude Oil Prices Before the Conflict
Before the recent escalation in the US-Israel conflict, crude oil prices had remained relatively stable, with expectations that they would not exceed the $100 per barrel mark. The last significant spike occurred following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which had set a precedent for volatility in the oil market.
Immediate Impact of the Conflict
However, as of March 9, 2026, crude oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel, driven by the fallout from the ongoing war. Brent crude has risen more than 20 percent, topping $114 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark prices have jumped 28.7% to $119.96 per barrel. This surge marks the first time oil prices have exceeded $100 since the previous geopolitical crisis.
The escalation began with joint strikes by the US and Israel on Iran on February 28, leading to a staggering 50 percent increase in crude oil prices in just over a week. The conflict has effectively halted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening about one-fifth of the global oil supply.
Consequences for the Global Market
The war has resulted in a deficit of 20 million barrels per day in the global oil market, causing oil storage facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait to reach their limits due to reduced export capabilities. As trading commenced in Asia Pacific markets, Brent crude jumped 26.3% to $117.08 per barrel, reflecting the immediate market reaction.
Expert Perspectives
Experts are weighing in on the implications of these price hikes. The International Monetary Fund has indicated that every sustained 10 percent rise in oil prices results in a 0.4 percent rise in inflation. A Qatari Minister of Energy has warned that if the conflict continues unabated, prices could potentially hit $150 a barrel.
Donald Trump remarked, “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace.” In contrast, an IRGC spokesperson cautioned, “If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game,” highlighting the potential for further escalation in prices.
Looking Ahead
As the situation evolves, the exact duration of the oil price surge remains unclear, and the potential for prices to reach $200 per barrel is uncertain. Industry leaders, such as Saad al-Kaabi, anticipate that many who have not yet declared force majeure will likely do so in the coming days if the conflict persists.
Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term effects of this conflict on the global oil market, but the immediate impact is evident as prices continue to fluctuate in response to geopolitical tensions.