The Iran war is threatening food security in Africa, potentially leading to dramatic consequences for the continent’s most vulnerable populations. As of May 1, 2026, the conflict has escalated, prompting significant disruptions in agricultural imports and fertiliser supplies that many African nations rely upon.
Documents show that the price of urea, a vital fertiliser ingredient, has surged by between 60% and 70% since the onset of the war. This increase poses a severe risk to food production in regions such as Ethiopia and Kenya, which are heavily dependent on nitrogenous fertilisers sourced from Gulf states—accounting for approximately 35 percent of the world’s supply.
Despite being well positioned to produce food, Africa remains a major food importer. The situation has worsened due to the ongoing conflict, which has already deepened into supply chains affecting food security across sub-Saharan Africa. In response to these challenges, Yara International, the world’s largest fertiliser company with operations in over 60 countries, has raised alarms about potential shortages.
Key statistics:
- The price of urea has increased by 60% to 70% since the war began.
- Africa imports a significant portion of its food despite its agricultural potential.
- The EU announced grant aid of up to €50,000 for farmers affected by the conflict.
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, stated that “the most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now – that there is a risk of a global auction on fertiliser that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable.” His comments underscore the urgent need for intervention as farming operations face increasing financial pressures.
Furthermore, S&P Global reported challenges arising from fuel and fertiliser restrictions due to the war. Farmers are losing production daily, with Holsether noting that “it will take weeks or months to restart” once operations are disrupted. This statement reflects a growing concern among agricultural stakeholders about long-term implications for food supply chains.
The implications of these developments are profound; farmers in regions like Ethiopia and Kenya may find themselves unable to afford necessary inputs for cultivation. One local labourer expressed despair over his financial situation: “Farming only leads to financial losses. I’d rather work as a day labourer and earn 100 to 200 baht a day just to get by.” This sentiment highlights the precariousness faced by many in these communities.