Professor Łukasz Fyderek highlights the frontrunners for the crucial position of the successor to Ayatollah Khamenei. — While there are other names on the list, it is the hereditary authority that could significantly influence the decision, according to the expert.
The authorities in the USA and Israel assert that the objective of the war they initiated is to overthrow the theocratic regime that has been in power in Iran since 1979. On Sunday, President Donald Trump referred to the operation as a “great success,” highlighting the “elimination of 48 leaders in a single strike.”
Successor to Khamenei
Trump stated that the authorities in Tehran expressed a willingness to engage in talks with the Americans following the attack, and he reportedly did not refuse. However, on Monday, Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, denied this claim. “We will not negotiate with the USA,” he wrote in a statement on the X platform.
Since Saturday, Iran has been targeting American bases in the region with drones and missiles, as well as facilities in neighboring countries. Among the targets are the international airport in Dubai, the port in Bahrain, and major cities in Israel, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
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Impact of Hereditary Authority
Professor Łukasz Fyderek, the director of the Institute of Near and Far East Studies at Jagiellonian University, expresses skepticism that American-Israeli airstrikes could lead to a shift in power in Tehran. — This regime is quite resilient to such forms of warfare. It was established in 1979 with the premise of combating a superior adversary, namely the Americans — he points out.
— Everyone in the region, including Iranians, understands that an airstrike will not lead to a ground invasion. Therefore, this operation can simply be endured — adds Professor Fyderek. He compares it to the war in neighboring Afghanistan, where the Taliban managed to survive for many years despite the intense military actions carried out by the Americans. — They succeeded because they had highly motivated and fanatical fighters. Such motivation and fanaticism are also present in Iran — he emphasizes.
Iran employs a distinctive “mosaic” doctrine. “The foundation lies in a shared ideology.”
US and Israel’s Objectives
The expert points out that the Iranian constitution outlines a procedure in the event of the supreme leader’s death, and the necessary actions were taken immediately following Khamenei’s passing. A temporary authority was established, consisting of a three-member council made up of the country’s president, the head of the judiciary, and one member from the constitutional body known as the Guardian Council. — According to what Iranian media reports, this council is operational. Its meetings have already occurred twice — states Professor Fyderek.
A separate issue is whether the temporary council exerts control over the military and determines the course of retaliatory attacks. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi acknowledged that tactical and operational decisions are made independently by the commanders of individual units.
— This is referred to as the “doctrine of mosaic defense.” It was articulated prior to the outbreak of the war. This may explain the occurrence of attacks on targets in Oman, a nation that had maintained a relatively friendly stance towards Iran — notes an expert from Jagiellonian University.
Reactions to Recent Strikes
— Even if the mentioned leaders do not maintain complete operational control due to concerns about signal interception and their whereabouts, the state apparatus functions relatively efficiently. Its foundation is a shared ideology — he adds.
Two candidates vying for the new leadership role. They come from diverse backgrounds.
At the same time, preparations began in Iran for selecting a successor to Ayatollah Khamenei. The appointment of the highest leader will be determined by a special body outlined in the constitution of the Islamic Republic, known as the Assembly of Experts. Currently, this assembly consists of 88 clerics.
— It can be likened to a conclave — acknowledges Professor Fyderek. — Iran, much like the Vatican, operates as a theocratic state. And similar to a conclave, it is quite challenging to predict who will be chosen. We are aware of a group of candidates. These are clergy members who must hold at least the title of mujtahid, meaning they are qualified to issue fatwas, which are Islamic legal opinions. They need to possess formal education related to the Shia branch of Islam. The Iranian constitution also stipulates certain moral characteristics that are essential for the highest leader.
The expert emphasizes that alongside religious qualifications, there exists a layer of “hard politics.” The interests of religious foundations come into play, which in Iran operate as economic conglomerates. Additionally, the balance of power within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is crucial, as it is directly overseen by the supreme leader.
— Compared to a Catholic conclave, there is another fundamental difference. In Shia Islam, celibacy does not exist. This implies that entire families hold significant roles within the clergy — points out Prof. Fyderek.
It suggests that the frontrunners for the pivotal position appear to be descendants of previous top leaders. The first candidate is Ali Khamenei, the grandson of the revered Iranian figure Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the revolution in 1979 and established the Islamic Republic. — Ali Khamenei is seen as someone closer to the reformist camp. He might be more willing to make significant concessions in both domestic and foreign policy, explains an expert from Jagiellonian University.
— The second most serious candidate is the son of the recently eliminated supreme leader, Modżtab Chamanei. He is viewed as a hawk who will refuse direct negotiations with the Americans. He enjoys the backing of hardline leaders from the Revolutionary Guards — adds Professor Fyderek.
— These are not the only names on the list, but it is the hereditary authority that may influence the decision — states the expert.
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